12
Black Heather
7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 116
Clonmel · Slievenamon Claiming Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA75 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA76 | 12th | 12th | −0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Bellewstown | BHA120 | −5 | ||
| 2025-06-07 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/04/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 10/05/2025 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 28/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 77% | -0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 29/07/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 39% | +0.34 |
| 02/09/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |