13
Hello Johnjoe
5yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 84
Clonmel · Slievenamon Claiming Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA86 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | BHA87 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | BHA89 | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | BHA90 | −2 | ||
| 2026-01-08 | Clonmel | BHA87 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | BHA88 | 5th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 02/08/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 20/08/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 17/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |