Rich Belief
9yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 113
Clonmel · Slievenamon Claiming Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA62 | 3rd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA64 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 25/04/2026 | 19th | 33/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |