IvyArcIvyArc
6

Rocky's Howya

10yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 116

Clonmel · Slievenamon Claiming Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Trailblazer who has been resurgent equipped with headgear, continuing his winning sequence in claiming hurdles over C&D and at Roscommon (3m) and Bellewstown (2½m, good) this summer. Remains unbeaten in claimers and big shout once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA101 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 101 · 2m6f Sft 158 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 101 par12/01101OR 101C8 @ Limerick 10/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 2m5f Hvy 158 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 102 parC8 @ Naas 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 2m6f20y Sft 158 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 109 par4/03C8OR 109BHA117 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 117 · 2m6f170y Hvy 157 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 117 parC8 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 116 · 2m3f116y Goo 152 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 116 par14/05C8OR 116BHA120 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 120 · 3m1f24y Sft 146 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 120 parC8 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 2m7f180y Gd 156 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 116 par6/07C8OR 116BHA116 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 116 · 3m60y Goo 162 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 116 parC8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 116 · 2m4f110y Goo 152 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 116 par26/08C8OR 116projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Bellewstown?1st1st0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA11614th19th−4
2026-07-06Roscommon?1st1st0
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA12013th18th−5
2026-05-14Clonmel?1st1st0
2026-04-10Wexford?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0112/036/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/20263rd14/126%87%+0.60
10/02/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
04/03/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
12/03/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
14/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/06/202613th11/271%14%-0.57
06/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
02/08/202614th10/147%24%-0.24
26/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26