IvyArcIvyArc
1

Courtmac Gesture

5yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 102

Clonmel · Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed more than previously over hurdles when third of 8 (held when left in a place last) at Leopardstown in March. Ran a moody race when last seen though and has a fair bit to find now tackling a handicap on the back of 179-day absence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Clonmel 27/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 2m Goo 15127/03C?C0 @ Listowel 31/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 159C0 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 1638/09C?1 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m100y Sft 160C8 @ Punchestown 26/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 2m3f Hvy 16126/01C8C0 @ Gowran Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f Hvy 165C8 @ Leopardstown 03/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m4f170y Sft 1613/03C8C8 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 1615/04C8projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-05Cork?13th13th0
2026-03-03Leopardstown?3rd3rd0
2026-02-14Gowran Park?4th4th0
2026-01-26Punchestown?6th6th0
2025-10-23Clonmel?0
2025-10-03Gowran Park15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/033/103/035/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -9.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20253rd50/10%86%+0.86
31/05/20255th5/174%69%-0.04
08/09/20252nd25/10%94%+0.94
03/10/20255th66/10%33%+0.33
26/01/20266th16/116%67%+0.51
14/02/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
03/03/20263rd15/261%71%+0.11
05/04/202613th16/116%8%-0.08