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6yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 102

Clonmel · Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved effort over hurdles when returning from 8 months off to finish second of 18 in 17f maiden at Clonmel (good) in May. Failed to back that up at Punchestown following month. Makes handicap debut starting out for new yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 03/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR - · 2m Yie 1623/08C?C0 @ Clonmel 27/03/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 2m Goo 161C0 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 16124/04C?C0 @ Tramore 31/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m50y Goo 165C0 @ Downpatrick 10/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m2f185y Goo 16110/08C?C8 @ Down Royal 29/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f87y Goo 153C8 @ Ballinrobe 12/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f215y Sft 15312/09C8C8 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR - · 2m159y Goo 153C8 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 103 · 2m5f139y Goo 161 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 103 par7/06C8OR 103projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-07Punchestown?7th7th0
2026-05-14Clonmel?2nd2nd0
2025-09-12Ballinrobe?9th9th0
2025-08-29Down Royal?4th4th0
2025-08-10Downpatrick?3rd3rd0
2025-05-31Tramore?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0831/0512/097/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20244th66/10%83%+0.83
27/03/202511th22/10%29%+0.29
24/04/20259th40/10%38%+0.38
31/05/20252nd11/271%89%+0.18
10/08/20253rd11/893%50%-0.43
29/08/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
12/09/20259th10/147%38%-0.09
14/05/20262nd14/126%94%+0.68
07/06/20267th13/266%65%-0.01