12
Misty Cove
3yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 95
Clonmel · Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA74 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA74 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA71 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/05/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 9% | -0.46 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 27/07/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |