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10

Princess Felicia

7yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 83

Clonmel · Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed the positive impression made since joining this yard when quickening clear to win a 16-runner handicap at Ballinrobe in August. Shaped as if amiss last time, blowing hard post-race, but remains one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA74
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tipperary 15/05/2024 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 2m Goo 15315/05C8C8 @ Tramore 31/05/2024 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 2m5f145y Yie 161BHA87 @ Kilbeggan 12/07/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 87 · 2m3f60y Goo 164 · below its mark12/07/2024 · OR 87 par12/0787OR 87BHA85 @ Kilbeggan 26/07/2024 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 85 · 2m2f200y Goo 158 · below its mark26/07/2024 · OR 85 parBHA82 @ Cork 05/08/2024 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 82 · 2m2f100y Goo 155 · below its mark05/08/2024 · OR 82 par5/0882OR 82C8 @ Clonmel 02/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 76 · 2m4f35y Yie 147 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 76 parBHA74 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 74 · 2m4f100y Gd 146 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 74 par13/0874OR 74BHA77 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 77 · 2m6f61y Gd 146 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 77 parBHA83 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 83 · 2m6f97y Yie 152 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 83 par7/0983OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA8313th13th0
2026-08-24BallinrobeBHA771st1st0
2026-08-13TramoreBHA742nd2nd0
2025-10-02Clonmel?3rd3rd0
2024-08-05CorkBHA8214th14th0
2024-07-26KilbegganBHA8510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0526/0713/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/202410th150/10%40%+0.40
31/05/20246th150/10%64%+0.64
12/07/20249th22/10%27%+0.27
26/07/202410th50/10%31%+0.31
05/08/202414th40/10%13%+0.13
02/10/20253rd12/137%87%+0.50
13/08/20262nd9/276%93%+0.17
24/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
07/09/202613th4/179%33%-0.46