IvyArcIvyArc
3

Sallap

6yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 102

Clonmel · Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y

#5

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual course winner, including extended 2¾m handicap in June. Followed that up with a success at Limerick in July and has held well since despite not always being seen to best effect, turning in a career best when ¾-length second of 15 to Can Happen at Navan last time. Player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 80 · 2m6f41y Gd 152 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 80 par22/0780OR 80BHA77 @ Wexford 29/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 77 · 2m4f100y Goo 147 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 77 parBHA73 @ Clonmel 02/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 73 · 2m6f170y Yie 141 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 73 par2/1073OR 73BHA85 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 85 · 3m80y Goo 153 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 85 parBHA84 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 84 · 2m6f90y Goo 152 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 84 par5/0684OR 84BHA91 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 91 · 2m6f120y Gd 159 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 91 parBHA100 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 100 · 3m60y Goo 146 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 100 par2/08100OR 100BHA100 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 100 · 3m1f168y Goo 157 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 100 parBHA100 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 100 · 2m5f Gd 158 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 100 par19/09100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19NavanBHA1002nd2nd0
2026-08-19SligoBHA1005th5th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA1005th5th0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA911st1st0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA841st1st0
2026-05-10CorkBHA8514th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0710/052/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20254th22/10%79%+0.79
29/08/202512th10/147%15%-0.32
02/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
10/05/202614th20/10%35%+0.35
05/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
02/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
02/08/20265th8/158%76%+0.19
19/08/20265th15/261%60%-0.01
19/09/20262nd9/153%93%+0.40