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11

Tasmanian Girl

6yo Mare · 10-1 · OR 77

Clonmel · Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 145y

#11

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Caused a shock when landing a handicap at Thurles in March 2025 for Aengus King but hasn't threatened to add to that success since. That said, she's shaped with a bit more encouragement on last 2 starts for current connections and any market support should be seriously noted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA40 @ Limerick 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 40 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 40 par21/0640OR 40BHA88 @ Cork 11/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 88 · 2m190y Goo 156 · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 88 parBHA87 @ Cork 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 87 · 2m1f20y Goo 155 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 87 par4/0887OR 87BHA86 @ Tramore 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 86 · 2m80y Gd 142 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 86 parBHA84 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 84 · 2m1f40y Gd 150 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 84 par27/0884OR 84C8 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 34 · 1m4f46y Gd 130 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 34 parBHA80 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 80 · 2m150y Gd 152 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 80 par23/0780OR 80BHA79 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 79 · 2m1f Goo 148 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 79 parBHA78 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 78 · 2m1f161y Gd 147 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 78 par19/0878OR 78projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19SligoBHA785th5th0
2026-08-03CorkBHA796th6th0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA809th9th0
2026-05-27Wexford?0
2026-05-11Roscommon?8th8th0
2025-08-27BellewstownBHA8414th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0615/0823/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength22%

Delivery trend -8.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20256th33/10%67%+0.67
11/07/20257th40/10%63%+0.63
04/08/20255th11/142%75%+0.33
15/08/20256th11/142%44%+0.02
27/08/202514th18/15%7%+0.02
11/05/20268th125/10%36%+0.36
23/07/20269th9/276%11%-0.65
03/08/20266th12/137%67%+0.30
19/08/20265th13/266%67%+0.01