IvyArcIvyArc
18

Ballyredinkingston

6yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 77

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hit and miss over hurdles and sixth of 9 on Roscommon chase debut when last seen 8 weeks ago. Cheekpieces go on 1st time reverting back to hurdles. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 31/07/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 16831/07C?C8 @ Tipperary 06/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 158C8 @ Clonmel 23/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m205y Yie 16623/10C8C8 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 2m3f97y Hvy 158BHA86 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 86 · 2m Sft 148 · below its mark15/12/2025 · OR 86 par15/1286OR 86BHA84 @ Naas 04/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 84 · 2m2f180y Sft 140 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 84 parBHA81 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 81 · 3m100y Gd 152 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 81 par15/0681OR 81BHA80 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 80 · 2m6f120y Gd 148 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 80 parBHA78 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 78 · 2m5f141y Sft 151 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 78 par4/0878OR 78projClass-projected finish: 10th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04RoscommonBHA786th6th−0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA806th7th−1
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA816th7th−1
2026-03-26ClonmelBHA81−1
2026-03-04NaasBHA8411th12th−1
2025-12-15NaasBHA8615th16th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/072/1215/064/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1933% of fieldRange 13-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/202515th125/10%7%+0.07
06/10/20259th33/10%20%+0.20
23/10/20254th50/10%50%+0.50
02/12/202510th125/10%47%+0.47
15/12/202515th20/10%7%+0.07
04/03/202611th28/10%0%0.00
15/06/20266th12/137%64%+0.27
02/07/20266th17/255%71%+0.15
04/08/20266th9/153%58%+0.06