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Codger's Rock

5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 96

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

#14

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Respectable ninth of 20 in handicap hurdle (16/1) at Galway (17f, good to soft) 24 days ago, unable to sustain effort. Tongue strap on first time. Stable among the winners.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR - · 2m1f105y Yie 15817/03C8C8 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 2m4f110y Yie 15819/04C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m7f153y Goo 16615/05C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 100 · 2m2f160y Goo 158 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 100 par10/07C8OR 100BHA100 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m1f Goo 168 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 100 par3/08100OR 100BHA98 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 98 · 2m1f40y Goo 166 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 98 par26/0898OR 98BHA98 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 98 · 2m160y Yie 158 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 98 par7/0998OR 98projClass-projected finish: 12th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA989th12th−2
2026-08-26BellewstownBHA986th9th−2
2026-08-03CorkBHA10012th15th−3
2026-07-10Kilbeggan?6th7th−1
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-19Tramore?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0310/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20267th200/10%67%+0.67
19/04/20267th50/10%33%+0.33
15/05/20262nd33/10%92%+0.92
10/07/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
03/08/202612th18/15%27%+0.21
26/08/20266th25/10%64%+0.64
07/09/20269th16/116%58%+0.42