19
Colesberg
5yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 95
Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Roscommon | BHA95 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | BHA93 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Clonmel | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gowran Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1989% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 26/03/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 28/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |