16

Doyen Og

7yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 72

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

#17

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 17 starts but was a respectable fourth of 12 in handicap hurdle at Downpatrick (2¼m, good to soft) 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 10/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 2m3f50y Gd 16110/05C8BHA80 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 80 · 2m1f40y Gd 146 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 80 parBHA82 @ Tipperary 06/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 2m100y Goo 151 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 82 par6/1082OR 82BHA81 @ Sligo 24/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 81 · 2m1f112y Goo 150 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 81 parBHA80 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 80 · 2m3f180y Hvy 148 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 80 par8/1180OR 80BHA75 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 75 · 2m1f55y Gd 143 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 75 parBHA73 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 23 · OR 73 · 2m1f60y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 73 par10/0773OR 73BHA72 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 72 · 2m140y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 72 parBHA72 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 72 · 2m1f165y Gd 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 72 par18/0972OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DownpatrickBHA724th4th+0
2026-08-16TramoreBHA727th7th+0
2026-07-10CorkBHA738th8th+0
2026-07-03WexfordBHA757th7th0
2026-05-30ListowelBHA78−0
2025-11-08Gowran ParkBHA8014th15th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0524/1010/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1928% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20259th300/10%47%+0.47
27/08/20253rd66/10%86%+0.86
06/10/20254th7/163%50%-0.13
24/10/20259th28/10%33%+0.33
08/11/202514th66/10%28%+0.28
03/07/20267th40/10%54%+0.54
10/07/20268th14/126%68%+0.42
16/08/20267th9/153%54%+0.01
18/09/20264th6/168%73%+0.04