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5

Friar Hogan

5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Close second at Limerick in July and was one of many unsuited by the way the race developed when sixth of 16 in handicap (7/2) at Kilbeggan (19f, good) since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength2%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 9.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 01/04/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 1611/04C8C8 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR - · 2m Goo 16127/09C8C8 @ Tipperary 06/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f160y Goo 1566/10C8BHA92 @ Thurles 30/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 92 · 1m7f150y Goo 160 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 92 par30/1092OR 92BHA90 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 90 · 2m4f Goo 159 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 90 par12/0590OR 90BHA90 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 90 · 2m4f Gd 150 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 90 par2/0790OR 90BHA94 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m2f200y Gd 162 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 94 par24/0794OR 94projClass-projected finish: 9th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA946th8th−2
2026-07-02LimerickBHA902nd4th−2
2026-05-28LimerickBHA88−1
2026-05-12SligoBHA9012th14th−2
2025-10-30ThurlesBHA9210th12th−2
2025-10-06Tipperary?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0430/1024/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1939% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength55%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/04/202514th50/10%13%+0.13
27/09/202514th250/10%19%+0.19
06/10/20256th250/10%44%+0.44
30/10/202510th40/10%47%+0.47
12/05/202612th28/10%27%+0.27
02/07/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
24/07/20266th7/282%67%-0.15