11
Il Silenzio
9yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 87
Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA100 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | BHA93 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA93 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-08-05 | Roscommon | BHA87 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-01 | Tipperary | BHA87 | −1 | ||
| 2025-06-09 | Roscommon | BHA87 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2023 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 14/08/2023 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 08/06/2024 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 11/10/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 09/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 87% | +0.21 |