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4

Like An Ocean

4yo Filly · 11-10 · OR 98

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the perfect start to her career when winning a 14-runner maiden hurdle at Roscommon in July. Hasn't built on that in 2 outings since (including a handicap) but this longer trip may help.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m7f204y Gd 1476/07C8C8 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m130y Gd 15427/07C8BHA100 @ Tramore 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 100 · 2m80y Gd 158 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 100 par14/08100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 14th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14TramoreBHA1007th10th−3
2026-07-27Galway?7th7th0
2026-07-06Roscommon?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0727/0714/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1944% of fieldRange 14-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -37.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
27/07/20267th40/10%40%+0.40
14/08/20267th28/10%25%+0.25