Pure Logic

6yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 100

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C8.1

Today:

Class gap: -0.6

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-25	Listowel	BHA100	3rd	6th	−3	4.0
2026-09-19	Navan	BHA98	2nd	5th	−2	5.2
2026-08-22	Killarney	BHA94	1st	3rd	−2	6.7
2026-08-13	Tramore	BHA94	3rd	5th	−2	4.7
2026-07-26	Uttoxeter	5			+3	5.0
2026-07-12	Stratford	5	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 19100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 19.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/05/2026	7th	10/1	47%	57%	+0.10
01/06/2026	6th	20/1	0%	58%	+0.58
14/06/2026	5th	22/1	0%	56%	+0.56
02/07/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	85%	+0.85
12/07/2026	6th	15/2	61%	29%	-0.32
13/08/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	87%	+0.87
22/08/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
19/09/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	93%	+0.56
25/09/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	85%	+0.19