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Sum Story

5yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 87

Clonmel · Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 3f 145y

#16

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★ Timeform

Commentary

Unplaced both starts in points and well held in 3 maiden hurdles this summer. Handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 10.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 2m2f185y Gd 16614/06C8C8 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m180y Goo 1587/08C8C8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f110y Goo 15826/08C8projClass-projected finish: 17th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Bellewstown?11th12th−1
2026-08-07Wexford?11th12th−1
2026-06-14Downpatrick?10th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/067/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 1911% of fieldRange 15-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/202610th100/10%31%+0.31
07/08/202611th150/10%23%+0.23
26/08/202611th150/10%23%+0.23