2
Hopeful Hero
5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 113
Clonmel · Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 170y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | BHA113 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA109 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA109 | 15th | 19th | −3 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 87% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 27/07/2026 | 15th | 9/2 | 76% | 26% | -0.50 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |