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Kashchei

6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 119

Clonmel · Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 170y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took another step forward to register a second success of the campaign in 9-runner novice hurdle at Downpatrick (21f, soft, 7/1) 13 days ago, relishing the increased emphasis on stamina. Big player back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 31/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 16831/07C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 09/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m Goo 168C8 @ Cork 03/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 3m Yie 1663/01C8C8 @ Navan 17/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m6f Sft 166C8 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 110 · 2m3f17y Sft 166 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 110 par4/02C8OR 110C8 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 107 · 2m5f185y Yie 158 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 107 par4 @ Kelso 06/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 104 · 2m4f189y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 104 par6/054OR 104BHA110 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 110 · 2m5f180y Gd 166 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 110 parC8 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 112 · 2m5f110y Gd 160 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 112 par18/09C8OR 112projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Downpatrick?1st1st0
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA1102nd6th−4
2026-06-30Wexford?0
2026-05-06Kelso41st-3th+4
2026-03-29Downpatrick?3rd4th−1
2026-02-04Punchestown?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0717/016/0518/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20256th9/153%67%+0.14
09/08/20256th5/287%38%-0.49
03/01/20266th28/10%17%+0.17
17/01/20267th150/10%45%+0.45
04/02/20265th7/163%33%-0.30
29/03/20263rd13/266%83%+0.18
06/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
31/08/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
18/09/20261st7/163%100%+0.37