Louiescall
5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 113
Clonmel · Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 170y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA70 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA70 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA73 | 11th | 11th | +0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA74 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |
| 25/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 94% | +0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 53% | -0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 29/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.36 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.11 |