4
St Lawrence's Well
6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 113
Clonmel · Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 170y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA114 | 9th | 14th | −4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Tramore | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-06 | Clonmel | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Cork | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Kilbeggan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 64% | -0.19 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 27% | -0.33 |