17
Duke Otto
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 98
Clonmel · Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 170y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA40 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA100 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | BHA103 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Tramore | BHA105 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | BHA40 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | BHA106 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1983% of fieldRange 4-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 08/07/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 04/08/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/02/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 16/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |