16
El Arco
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72
Clonmel · Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 170y
#19
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA73 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA74 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Warwick | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Chepstow | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Plumpton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-11 | Hereford | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 190% of fieldRange 10-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 300/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/10/2025 | 13th | 300/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 11/11/2025 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/12/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 19/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 61% | +0.56 |