7
Lummi Island
8yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 88
Clonmel · Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 170y
#16
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | BHA91 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | BHA91 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA91 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Wexford | BHA91 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Tipperary | BHA90 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Limerick | BHA86 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1944% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2024 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/06/2024 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 25/10/2024 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 22/11/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/05/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 46% | -0.30 |
| 25/08/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |