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Paul Collins

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100

Clonmel · Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 170y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

57%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better signs back over hurdles when third in claimer at Roscommon (25f) in July. Hasn't built on that effort in 3 handicaps since, though found the test inadequate when seventh of 20 over 17f at Galway last time and this trip is more suitable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA107 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 107 · 2m3f100y Goo 163 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 107 par26/09107OR 107C8 @ Galway 07/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 2m6f60y Yie 153 · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 107 parBHA111 @ Galway 25/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 111 · 2m5f200y Yie 141 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 111 par25/10111OR 111BHA110 @ Cork 23/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 110 · 3m40y Yie 166 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 110 parC8 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 110 · 2m3f73y Sft 166 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 110 par12/01C8OR 110C8 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 2m7f180y Gd 158 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 108 parBHA105 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 105 · 2m6f Gd 161 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 105 par29/07105OR 105BHA103 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 103 · 2m2f200y Goo 159 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 103 parBHA102 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 102 · 2m160y Yie 162 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 102 par7/09102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 8th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA1027th7th0
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA1036th6th0
2026-07-29GalwayBHA10513th13th0
2026-07-06Roscommon?3rd3rd0
2026-06-30WexfordBHA1050
2026-01-12Punchestown?16th16th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0923/1129/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +10.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/202511th10/147%33%-0.14
07/10/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
25/10/202511th11/271%29%-0.42
23/11/202512th12/137%21%-0.15
12/01/202616th18/15%0%-0.05
06/07/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
29/07/202613th20/10%33%+0.33
21/08/20266th33/10%64%+0.64
07/09/20267th22/10%68%+0.68