3
Private Policy
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 98
Clonmel · Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 170y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA92 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Naas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2024 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/04/2024 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 22/02/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.00 |