Ade

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 84

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength39%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-16	Delaware Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-14	Delaware Park	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-08-01	Penn National	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-12	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-13	Delaware Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-05-20	Delaware Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength37%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/03/2026	6th	7/2	82%	17%	-0.65
17/04/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	60%	-0.27
03/05/2026	2nd	13/8	91%	80%	-0.11
20/05/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	33%	-0.27
13/06/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	67%	+0.40
12/07/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
01/08/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	75%	-0.12
14/08/2026	9th	5/1	74%	0%	-0.74
16/09/2026	1st	4/5	96%	100%	+0.04