Ariana Valentina
7yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 28/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |