Tortuga Island
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |