5
Bourbon State
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |