Chicoco

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 64

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-18	Delaware Park	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-08-15	Colonial Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/07/2026	5th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
15/08/2026	6th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
18/09/2026	9th	14/1	26%	27%	+0.01