11
Nova's Time
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 63
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +20.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |