4
Cassie's Vault
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 57
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 11/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 10/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |