10
Lady Patrick's
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 59
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength6%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |