5
Backside
4yo Colt · 10-0 · OR 35
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +20.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |