1
Bad Boy Butch
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 58
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-01-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 02/03/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |