4
Excellion
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 45
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +36.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |