Hay Grace Brennan
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |