13
Irish Gent
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 81
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 25/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 88% | -0.09 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |