3
Liberty Bay
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 45
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#13
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |