8
Royal Renegade
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 64
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |