Mystical Merlin

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 70

Delaware Park · Race 9 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

32%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Monmouth Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-01	Monmouth Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-06-28	Monmouth Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-05-17	Monmouth Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-12-26	Oaklawn Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-10-08	Delaware Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength41%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2025	5th	11/2	71%	20%	-0.51
03/08/2025	2nd	9/4	88%	75%	-0.13
31/08/2025	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
08/10/2025	3rd	11/8	93%	60%	-0.33
26/12/2025	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
17/05/2026	7th	8/11	96%	14%	-0.82
28/06/2026	7th	3/1	84%	40%	-0.44
01/08/2026	6th	2/1	89%	17%	-0.73
30/08/2026	1st	4/11	98%	100%	+0.02