Slay Sadie Slay

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 79

Delaware Park · Race 9 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Monmouth Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-16	Monmouth Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-27	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-25	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-10	Aqueduct	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-03-27	Laurel Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength63%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/12/2025	4th	8/1	58%	50%	-0.08
18/01/2026	1st	15/8	90%	100%	+0.10
27/02/2026	5th	15/8	90%	0%	-0.90
27/03/2026	4th	14/1	26%	25%	-0.01
10/04/2026	5th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
25/05/2026	5th	9/1	53%	20%	-0.33
27/06/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60
16/08/2026	6th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
30/08/2026	4th	13/2	66%	40%	-0.26