6
Spurious
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 73
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 17/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |