Authentic Charm
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 46
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Zia Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-08-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -24.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/09/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |