2
Aguila Negra
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA85 | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |