7
Expect The Best
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 102
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |