1
Explosively
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 99
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |